Key Findings

• Reviews 12 follow-up studies of gender-dysphoric children into adulthood spanning multiple countries and decades
• Finds that approximately 60–90% of children referred to gender identity clinics no longer identify as transgender by adulthood
• Notes that desisters generally grow up to be gay or lesbian rather than heterosexual
• Emphasizes that a substantial minority do persist and deserve appropriate support
• Argues that neither desistance nor persistence can be taken for granted, requiring careful individual assessment

Abstract

Following the closure of the CAMH Gender Identity Clinic for children, this blog post reviews what the science says about whether children who identify as transgender remain transgender into adulthood. The post summarizes three large-scale follow-up studies and several smaller ones, all examining the outcomes of children referred to gender identity clinics. The studies span different countries, cultures, decades, and follow-up lengths and methods.

Summary

Cantor reviews 12 follow-up studies of gender-dysphoric children into adulthood, finding that across different countries and decades, roughly 60–90% of children referred to gender identity clinics no longer identify as transgender by adulthood. The post emphasizes that desisters typically grow up to be gay or lesbian rather than cisgender heterosexual, and that a substantial minority do persist in their transgender identity. Cantor concludes that neither outcome can be taken for granted, underscoring the need for careful individual assessment.

Conclusion

Despite the differences in country, culture, decade, and follow-up length and method, all the studies have come to a remarkably similar conclusion: Only very few trans- kids still want to transition by the time they are adults. Instead, they generally turn out to be regular gay or lesbian folks. The exact number varies by study, but roughly 60–90% of trans- kids turn out no longer to be trans by adulthood. A very substantial proportion do indeed want to transition as they get older, and we need to ensure they receive the support they will need. The science shows very clearly and very consistently that we cannot take either outcome for granted.