Key Findings

• Tests the claim that state bans on puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgery for minors would spike teen suicides — across three distinct models, no statistical evidence that they did
• Standard difference-in-differences model (CDC data 2018–2024, 23 ban states; controls for 20–24 suicide rates, national trend, state averages, per-capita income): estimated effect −0.3%, p = 0.931, indistinguishable from zero
• Callaway–Sant'Anna estimator, built for staggered policy adoption, with the same controls: average change in state suicide rates under 1%, high p-values, no effect — changing the estimator does not change the result
• National time-series on monthly data for ages 13–17, where policy exposure is the share of trans-identifying teens living under a ban: estimated effect rounds to 0, p = 0.987
• Traces how the suicide-prevention narrative spread despite its evidence: Tordoff et al. (2022)'s untreated comparison group collapsed from 93 to 7 participants, and the Trevor Project's headline 72% figure traces to roughly 60 Idaho adolescents per year, in a period when the challenged laws were blocked in court
• Cass Review and European authorities (UK 2024, Sweden 2022, Finland 2020, Norway 2023) found the underlying evidence low to very low quality; authors publish their STATA code but caution that results could change as more years of data accumulate

Abstract

Do No Harm analysis finding no evidence that state bans on gender interventions for minors raised teen suicide rates.

Summary

A 2026 Do No Harm report used three statistical models to test whether state bans on gender interventions for minors increased teen suicide rates, finding no evidence that they did, and documented how contrary claims spread despite weak underlying evidence.

Conclusion

The prediction that restricting medicalization of gender-distressed minors would produce a spike in youth suicides is not supported by the data.