Very Low Certainty Evidence: Major Review Questions Mental Health Benefits of Cross-Sex Hormones For Individuals Under 26

Gender affirming hormone therapy for individuals with gender dysphoria aged <26 years: a systematic review and meta-analysis

mental healthcohort studypuberty suppressionmedical ethicsgender dysphoriasystematic reviewmeta-analysis
Authors
Anna Miroshnychenko, Sara Ibrahim, Yetiani Roldan, Chan Kulatunga-Moruzi, Steven Montante, Rachel Couban, Gordon Guyatt, Romina Brignardello-Petersen
Year
2025
Journal
Archives of Disease in Childhood

Methodological Limitations

  • Funding conflict of interest: The work was commissioned by the Society for Evidence-based Gender Medicine (SEGM), an organization with a known critical stance on gender-affirming care for youth, creating potential sponsor bias in study selection, framing, or interpretation.
  • Direct financial compensation to authors from SEGM: RB-P and AM 'provided methodological expertise for the SEGM initiative to summarise and appraise the quality of publications related to gender medicine for the SEGM online platform, and for this work they received financial compensation from SEGM.'
  • Protocol authors with SEGM affiliations: William Malone is a board member of SEGM and a contributing author for the SEGM online platform, and participated in generating the systematic review question, potentially biasing the research question formulation.
  • Language restriction bias: The review included only English-language studies, which may exclude relevant non-English research and systematically bias findings.
  • Modified risk of bias tool without validation: The authors used a 'modified version of the Cochrane risk of bias tool for non-randomised studies of interventions (ROBINS-I)' without demonstrating that this modification maintains validity or reliability; they merely asserted it 'produced similar conclusions.'
  • Inconsistent handling of heterogeneity: The authors chose not to rate down for inconsistency despite considerable heterogeneity (I²=88%, p<0.01 for global function; I²=94%, p<0.01 for global function in before-after studies; I²=100%, p<0.01 for depression) based on post-hoc explanations about sex-specific measurement rather than prespecified criteria.
  • Implausible precision in BMD estimates: Hip BMD was reported as '0.01 higher (95% CI 0.01 higher to 0.01 higher)' with identical point estimate and confidence limits, suggesting computational or reporting error rather than genuine precision.
  • Contradictory certainty ratings for cardiovascular events: The same outcome (cardiovascular events in NFs) received 'high certainty' in one case series and 'moderate certainty' in another, with no clear justification for this discrepancy beyond differing follow-up periods and event definitions.
  • Circular reasoning in case series certainty assessment: The authors rated cardiovascular events as 'high certainty' in case series because 'this outcome does not need a comparison group,' yet cardiovascular events in intervention recipients inherently require comparison to establish causality or even baseline risk.
  • Post-hoc reclassification of study design: One before-after study was 'classified as a case series' for the suicide outcome because it only reported post-intervention data, suggesting selective reclassification based on data availability rather than prespecified criteria.
  • Failure to define minimally important difference: The authors 'did not define a minimally important difference to determine whether an effect was clinically meaningful or important,' potentially obscuring clinically relevant effects.
  • Imputed correlation coefficient without sensitivity analysis: The authors 'imputed a moderate correlation coefficient (r=0.5)' for before-after studies without reporting sensitivity analyses to assess robustness to this assumption.
  • Selective outcome prioritization: Due to 'feasibility considerations,' the authors excluded potentially important outcomes including 'regret, anxiety, pelvic pain or cancers,' which may be highly relevant to harm assessment.
  • Potential confounding by indication: The comparative observational studies showed serious risk of bias from confounding, with lack of adjustment for 'psychiatric interventions, mental health comorbidities, socioeconomic status and family support'—factors strongly associated with both treatment access and outcomes.
  • Co-intervention contamination: In one study, '28.26% of the participants in the no GAHT group were receiving puberty blockers or spironolactone as monotherapy,' severely compromising the comparison.
  • Extreme missing data: Multiple studies had critical risk of bias due to missing data, including 41.71%, 46.75%, 48%, 69% of participants not providing outcome data, threatening validity of conclusions.
  • Inadequate sample sizes: The authors noted that 'optimal information size (200) was not met' for some meta-analyses, yet proceeded with pooled estimates despite high risk of random error.

Key Findings

  • The evidence for most effects of gender affirming hormone therapy (GAHT) in young people under 26 is very low certainty, meaning we cannot confidently determine benefits or harms.
  • Only one study found low certainty evidence that depression may be lower in those who received GAHT compared to those who did not.
  • Cardiovascular events were the only outcomes with higher certainty evidence: about 4% of natal females experienced cardiovascular events 7-109 months after GAHT (high certainty), and about 0.2% at 26 months (moderate certainty).
  • All 24 included studies had serious methodological limitations, including failure to adjust for important confounders like mental health conditions, missing data, and participants receiving other treatments.
  • The authors conclude that better designed prospective studies are urgently needed to understand the true effects of GAHT on gender dysphoria, mental health, bone density, and other outcomes.

Abstract

Objective In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we assessed and summarised the certainty of the evidence about the effects of gender affirming hormone therapy (GAHT) in individuals with gender dysphoria (GD). Methods We searched Medline, Embase, PsychINFO, Social Sciences Abstracts, LGBTQ+ Source and Sociological Abstracts from inception to September 2023. We included studies comparing GAHT with no GAHT in individuals aged <26 years with GD. Outcomes of interest included psychological and physical effects. Pairs of reviewers independently screened articles, abstracted data and assessed the risk of bias in the included studies. We performed meta-analyses and assessed the certainty of the evidence using the grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) approach. Results We included 24 studies. Comparative observational studies (n=9) provided mostly very low certainty evidence regarding GD, global function and depression. One comparative observational study reported that the odds of depression may be lower (OR 0.73 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.88), n (number of studies)=1, low certainty) in individuals who received GAHT compared with those who did not. Before-after studies (n=13) provided very low certainty evidence about GD, global function, depression and bone mineral density. Case series studies (n=2) provided high certainty evidence that the proportion of individuals with cardiovascular events 7-109 months after receiving GAHT was 0.04 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.05, n=1, high certainty). Conclusion There is considerable uncertainty about the effects of GAHT and we cannot exclude the possibility of benefit or harm. Methodologically rigorous prospective studies are needed to produce higher certainty evidence. Trial registration number PROSPERO CRD42023452171.

Summary

This systematic review and meta-analysis examined the effects of gender affirming hormone therapy (GAHT) in individuals under 26 years with gender dysphoria, finding that most evidence about psychological and physical outcomes was of very low certainty. The review of 24 studies concluded that while some data suggested potential benefits (such as lower depression) and harms (cardiovascular events), the overall evidence base is too uncertain to reliably determine whether GAHT provides net benefit or harm. The authors call for methodologically rigorous prospective studies to produce higher quality evidence for this controversial and consequential medical intervention.

Conclusion

The best available evidence reporting on the effects of GAHT in individuals with GD ranged from moderate to high certainty for cardiovascular events and low to very low certainty for the outcomes of GD, global function, depression, sexual dysfunction, BMD and death by suicide. We did not find evidence of sexual dysfunction in NMs. The evidence in this SR and meta-analysis does not exclude the possibility of benefit or harm upon receipt of GAHT. Prospective studies giving higher certainty evidence are needed to understand the short and long term effects of GAHT.