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21 فقط من 2,467 سويدياً عكسوا تغييراً قانونياً للجندر — لكن العكس القانوني لا يلتقط إلا جزءاً من التراجع عن التحول

الاستقرار بعد التغيير القانوني للجندر لدى البالغين المصابين بعدم الارتياح الجندري

دراسات الأتراب والسجلاتالانتكاس والندم
Authors
Kristen D. Clark, Richard A. White, Georgios Karamanis, Malin Indremo, Fatih Özel, Alkistis Skalkidou, Thomas Frisell, Fotios C. Papadopoulos
Journal
JAMA Network Open
Year
2025
Source
https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.27780

Summary

Researchers in Uppsala used Swedish national records to follow everyone first diagnosed with gender dysphoria between 2013 and 2023, 7,293 people. They checked who changed legal gender and who changed back. About a third (2,467) made a legal change. Only 21 changed back, so the estimated chance of keeping the new legal gender for 10 years was about 98%. The records are complete, but narrow. In Sweden, changing back needs a new application and a psychological assessment, so it is only a small, formal part of detransition. People who stop hormones, regret surgery or re-identify with their birth sex without changing their papers are not counted. Most people were followed for only a few years after their legal change, while detransition often happens 5 to 10 years after transition. The study shows that changing legal gender back is rare; it does not show that detransition is rare.

Key findings

  • شملت الدراسة جميع الـ 7,293 شخصاً في السويد الذين شُخّصوا أول مرة بعدم الارتياح الجندري بين 2013 و2023 (4,083 وُلدوا إناثاً و3,210 ذكوراً)، وتمت متابعة كل منهم نحو 5 سنوات في المتوسط.
  • غيّر 2,467 شخصاً (34%) جنسهم القانوني، بعد 3.2 سنة في المتوسط من أول تشخيص؛ وكان الاحتمال المقدَّر لفعل ذلك خلال 10 سنوات 58%.
  • لم يعد إلى جنسه عند الولادة سوى 21 شخصاً: 0.9% ممن غيّروا، و0.3% من المجموعة كلها.
  • كان الاحتمال المقدَّر للاحتفاظ بالجنس القانوني الجديد لمدة 10 سنوات نحو 98% (على الأرجح بين 96% و99%)، دون فرق بين من وُلدوا إناثاً ومن وُلدوا ذكوراً.
  • كان الـ 21 الذين عادوا مشابهين لبقية الناس؛ ولم يكن قد شُخّص قبل سن 18 سوى 2، وكان متوسط عمرهم نحو 30 عند العودة.
  • يؤكد المؤلفون أن العودة عن تغيير الجنس القانوني ليست مثل التراجع عن التحول، ولا تقول شيئاً عن الأسباب أو الهوية، وينبغي التعامل معها كحد أدنى.
  • تذكر مناقشة الورقة معدل العودة بأنه 0.09% ممن لديهم تغيير قانوني، وهو أقل بعشرة أضعاف من 0.9% (21 من 2,467) في نتائجها الخاصة.

Abstract

IMPORTANCE: The number of people seeking treatment for gender dysphoria (GD) has risen in recent decades, yet data remain limited for understanding cases of detransition (ie, the reversal of social, medical, or legal transition). Legal gender change in national registers poses an opportunity to examine legal gender reversals, which may reflect an aspect of the detransition process, while also informing an understanding of the stability after a legal gender change. OBJECTIVE: To determine the probability of obtaining a legal gender change and its stability over time among people diagnosed with GD in Sweden during a 10-year study period. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this population cohort study using data from Swedish national registers from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2023, individuals who received their first International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10), diagnosis code for GD during the study period were included. While participants may have received a GD ICD-10 code as youths, legal gender changes only occurred for adults (aged ≥18 years) based on legal requirements during the time of data collection. EXPOSURE: Gender dysphoria. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Legal gender change and its stability, that is, absence of legal gender reversal, as reported in the registry. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to determine the probability of legal gender change and its stability during a 10-year study period. RESULTS: A total of 7293 people with a GD diagnosis were included (36 025 person-years). Approximately one-third of the sample (n = 2467) obtained a legal gender change during the study period. The probability of legal gender change at 10 years following diagnosis was 58.3% (95% CI, 56.2%-60.4%). Twenty-one cases of legal gender reversal were identified. The probability of legal gender stability at 10 years following the initial change was 97.7% (95% CI, 96.3%-99.2%), with no differences by sex assigned at birth for either outcome. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study using national population registry data, a significant proportion of participants with GD in Sweden obtained legal gender change within 10 years of follow-up. Despite significant growth of the population with GD, the probability of legal gender stability during the 10-year study period was high, at almost 98%. These results highlight that legal gender reversal was an infrequent occurrence in a national sample.

Conclusion

In this cohort study using national population registry data, a significant proportion of participants with gender dysphoria in Sweden obtained legal gender change within 10 years of follow-up. Despite significant growth of the population with gender dysphoria, the probability of legal gender stability during the 10-year study period was high, at almost 98%, and legal gender reversal was an infrequent occurrence in a national sample. No differences by sex assigned at birth were observed, and most individuals who legally reverted were in their twenties at first diagnosis. The authors note that legal gender reversal is not synonymous with detransition, should be considered a lower-bound approximation, and cannot be generalized to social or medical detransition.