Summary

Researchers tested 85 gender-nonconforming young children, none yet socially transitioned, on tasks about gender identity and liking for toys, clothes and playmates. About two years later they checked whether the children had transitioned (changed pronouns). 36 had. Children who identified more strongly with the other sex at first testing were more likely to have transitioned, and their scores already looked like those of transitioned children and of children of the other sex. The authors conclude that childhood transitions are not random, and that transition itself does not seem to strengthen identification with the other sex. But the group was small, self-selected and from liberal, well-off families. Follow-up was short. The result was a parents' decision, not long-term identity. And the 'no change' claim compares different children, not the same child before and after.

Key findings

• 85 niños con inconformidad de género que no habían hecho una transición social fueron evaluados y seguidos unos 25 meses después de media.
• 36 niños (41 %) habían hecho una transición social cambiando de pronombres en el seguimiento; 49 no.
• Los niños que se identificaban con más fuerza con el otro sexo al principio tenían unas 4 veces más probabilidades de hacer la transición (unas 5 veces tras tener en cuenta otros factores).
• Un niño con una puntuación intermedia tenía una probabilidad prevista de hacer la transición de alrededor del 30 %, frente a alrededor del 48 % para un niño con una puntuación alta.
• Los niños que acabaron haciendo la transición puntuaron aproximadamente igual que los niños que ya la habían hecho y que los niños del otro sexo.
• Los niños tenían unas 4 veces más probabilidades de hacer la transición que las niñas, y un intervalo más largo antes del seguimiento también predecía la transición.
• Los padres eran muy liberales políticamente y de ingresos altos, y los autores dicen que la tasa de transición del 41 % probablemente sobrestima la tasa de los niños con inconformidad de género en general.

Abstract

Increasing numbers of gender-nonconforming children are socially transitioning-changing pronouns to live as their identified genders. We studied a cohort of gender-nonconforming children (n = 85) and contacted them again approximately 2 years later. When recontacted, 36 of the children had socially transitioned. We found that stronger cross-sex identification and preferences expressed by gender-nonconforming children at initial testing predicted whether they later socially transitioned. We then compared the gender-nonconforming children with groups of transitioned transgender children (n = 84) and gender-conforming controls (n = 85). Children from our longitudinal cohort who would later transition were highly similar to transgender children (children who had already socially transitioned) and to control children of the gender to which they would eventually transition. Gender-nonconforming children who would not go on to transition were different from these groups. These results suggest that (a) social transitions may be predictable from gender identification and preferences and (b) gender identification and preferences may not meaningfully differ before and after social transitions.

Conclusion

Despite limitations and a need for future replications, this study provides preliminary evidence that extremity of identification with the gender opposite one's assigned sex predicts childhood social transitions. Moreover, differences in gender extremity likely exist prior to—and not because of—social transitions.