Summary

Researchers tested 85 gender-nonconforming young children, none yet socially transitioned, on tasks about gender identity and liking for toys, clothes and playmates. About two years later they checked whether the children had transitioned (changed pronouns). 36 had. Children who identified more strongly with the other sex at first testing were more likely to have transitioned, and their scores already looked like those of transitioned children and of children of the other sex. The authors conclude that childhood transitions are not random, and that transition itself does not seem to strengthen identification with the other sex. But the group was small, self-selected and from liberal, well-off families. Follow-up was short. The result was a parents' decision, not long-term identity. And the 'no change' claim compares different children, not the same child before and after.

Key findings

• 85 enfants non conformes au genre n'ayant pas fait de transition sociale ont été testés et suivis environ 25 mois plus tard en moyenne.
• 36 enfants (41 %) avaient fait une transition sociale en changeant de pronoms au suivi ; 49 non.
• Les enfants qui s'identifiaient plus fortement à l'autre sexe au départ avaient environ 4 fois plus de probabilités de faire la transition (environ 5 fois en tenant compte d'autres facteurs).
• Un enfant avec un score moyen avait environ 30 % de chances prédites de faire la transition, contre environ 48 % pour un enfant avec un score élevé.
• Les enfants qui ont ensuite fait la transition avaient à peu près les mêmes scores que les enfants l'ayant déjà faite et que les enfants de l'autre sexe.
• Les garçons avaient environ 4 fois plus de probabilités de faire la transition que les filles, et un plus long délai avant le suivi prédisait aussi la transition.
• Les parents étaient très libéraux politiquement et à revenu élevé, et les auteurs disent que le taux de transition de 41 % surestime probablement le taux chez les enfants non conformes au genre en général.

Abstract

Increasing numbers of gender-nonconforming children are socially transitioning-changing pronouns to live as their identified genders. We studied a cohort of gender-nonconforming children (n = 85) and contacted them again approximately 2 years later. When recontacted, 36 of the children had socially transitioned. We found that stronger cross-sex identification and preferences expressed by gender-nonconforming children at initial testing predicted whether they later socially transitioned. We then compared the gender-nonconforming children with groups of transitioned transgender children (n = 84) and gender-conforming controls (n = 85). Children from our longitudinal cohort who would later transition were highly similar to transgender children (children who had already socially transitioned) and to control children of the gender to which they would eventually transition. Gender-nonconforming children who would not go on to transition were different from these groups. These results suggest that (a) social transitions may be predictable from gender identification and preferences and (b) gender identification and preferences may not meaningfully differ before and after social transitions.

Conclusion

Despite limitations and a need for future replications, this study provides preliminary evidence that extremity of identification with the gender opposite one's assigned sex predicts childhood social transitions. Moreover, differences in gender extremity likely exist prior to—and not because of—social transitions.