Summary

Researchers tested 85 gender-nonconforming young children, none yet socially transitioned, on tasks about gender identity and liking for toys, clothes and playmates. About two years later they checked whether the children had transitioned (changed pronouns). 36 had. Children who identified more strongly with the other sex at first testing were more likely to have transitioned, and their scores already looked like those of transitioned children and of children of the other sex. The authors conclude that childhood transitions are not random, and that transition itself does not seem to strengthen identification with the other sex. But the group was small, self-selected and from liberal, well-off families. Follow-up was short. The result was a parents' decision, not long-term identity. And the 'no change' claim compares different children, not the same child before and after.

Key findings

• 85 bambini non conformi al genere che non avevano fatto la transizione sociale sono stati testati e seguiti circa 25 mesi dopo in media.
• 36 bambini (41%) avevano fatto la transizione sociale cambiando i pronomi al follow-up; 49 no.
• I bambini che all'inizio si identificavano più fortemente con l'altro sesso avevano una probabilità circa 4 volte maggiore di fare la transizione (circa 5 volte tenendo conto di altri fattori).
• Un bambino con un punteggio intermedio aveva una probabilità prevista di transizione di circa il 30%, contro circa il 48% per un bambino con un punteggio alto.
• I bambini che sono poi passati alla transizione ottenevano punteggi circa uguali a quelli dei bambini che l'avevano già fatta e dei bambini dell'altro sesso.
• I maschi avevano una probabilità circa 4 volte maggiore di fare la transizione rispetto alle femmine, e anche un intervallo più lungo prima del follow-up prediceva la transizione.
• I genitori erano politicamente molto liberali e ad alto reddito, e gli autori dicono che il tasso di transizione del 41% probabilmente sovrastima quello dei bambini non conformi al genere in generale.

Abstract

Increasing numbers of gender-nonconforming children are socially transitioning-changing pronouns to live as their identified genders. We studied a cohort of gender-nonconforming children (n = 85) and contacted them again approximately 2 years later. When recontacted, 36 of the children had socially transitioned. We found that stronger cross-sex identification and preferences expressed by gender-nonconforming children at initial testing predicted whether they later socially transitioned. We then compared the gender-nonconforming children with groups of transitioned transgender children (n = 84) and gender-conforming controls (n = 85). Children from our longitudinal cohort who would later transition were highly similar to transgender children (children who had already socially transitioned) and to control children of the gender to which they would eventually transition. Gender-nonconforming children who would not go on to transition were different from these groups. These results suggest that (a) social transitions may be predictable from gender identification and preferences and (b) gender identification and preferences may not meaningfully differ before and after social transitions.

Conclusion

Despite limitations and a need for future replications, this study provides preliminary evidence that extremity of identification with the gender opposite one's assigned sex predicts childhood social transitions. Moreover, differences in gender extremity likely exist prior to—and not because of—social transitions.