Summary

Researchers tested 85 gender-nonconforming young children, none yet socially transitioned, on tasks about gender identity and liking for toys, clothes and playmates. About two years later they checked whether the children had transitioned (changed pronouns). 36 had. Children who identified more strongly with the other sex at first testing were more likely to have transitioned, and their scores already looked like those of transitioned children and of children of the other sex. The authors conclude that childhood transitions are not random, and that transition itself does not seem to strengthen identification with the other sex. But the group was small, self-selected and from liberal, well-off families. Follow-up was short. The result was a parents' decision, not long-term identity. And the 'no change' claim compares different children, not the same child before and after.

Key findings

• 85 crianças não conformes ao gênero que não haviam feito a transição social foram testadas e acompanhadas cerca de 25 meses depois em média.
• 36 crianças (41%) haviam feito a transição social mudando os pronomes no acompanhamento; 49 não.
• As crianças que se identificavam mais fortemente com o outro sexo no início tinham cerca de 4 vezes mais probabilidade de fazer a transição (cerca de 5 vezes levando em conta outros fatores).
• Uma criança com pontuação intermediária tinha cerca de 30% de chance prevista de fazer a transição, contra cerca de 48% para uma criança com pontuação alta.
• As crianças que passaram a fazer a transição pontuaram aproximadamente o mesmo que as crianças que já haviam feito a transição e que as crianças do outro sexo.
• Os meninos tinham cerca de 4 vezes mais probabilidade de fazer a transição do que as meninas, e um intervalo maior até o acompanhamento também previa a transição.
• Os pais eram muito liberais politicamente e de alta renda, e os autores dizem que a taxa de transição de 41% provavelmente superestima a taxa de crianças não conformes ao gênero em geral.

Abstract

Increasing numbers of gender-nonconforming children are socially transitioning-changing pronouns to live as their identified genders. We studied a cohort of gender-nonconforming children (n = 85) and contacted them again approximately 2 years later. When recontacted, 36 of the children had socially transitioned. We found that stronger cross-sex identification and preferences expressed by gender-nonconforming children at initial testing predicted whether they later socially transitioned. We then compared the gender-nonconforming children with groups of transitioned transgender children (n = 84) and gender-conforming controls (n = 85). Children from our longitudinal cohort who would later transition were highly similar to transgender children (children who had already socially transitioned) and to control children of the gender to which they would eventually transition. Gender-nonconforming children who would not go on to transition were different from these groups. These results suggest that (a) social transitions may be predictable from gender identification and preferences and (b) gender identification and preferences may not meaningfully differ before and after social transitions.

Conclusion

Despite limitations and a need for future replications, this study provides preliminary evidence that extremity of identification with the gender opposite one's assigned sex predicts childhood social transitions. Moreover, differences in gender extremity likely exist prior to—and not because of—social transitions.