Summary

Researchers tested 85 gender-nonconforming young children, none yet socially transitioned, on tasks about gender identity and liking for toys, clothes and playmates. About two years later they checked whether the children had transitioned (changed pronouns). 36 had. Children who identified more strongly with the other sex at first testing were more likely to have transitioned, and their scores already looked like those of transitioned children and of children of the other sex. The authors conclude that childhood transitions are not random, and that transition itself does not seem to strengthen identification with the other sex. But the group was small, self-selected and from liberal, well-off families. Follow-up was short. The result was a parents' decision, not long-term identity. And the 'no change' claim compares different children, not the same child before and after.

Key findings

• 85 de copii neconformi cu genul care nu făcuseră tranziția socială au fost testați și urmăriți după în medie aproximativ 25 de luni.
• 36 de copii (41%) făcuseră tranziția socială schimbând pronumele la urmărire; 49 nu.
• Copiii care se identificau mai puternic cu celălalt sex la început aveau de aproximativ 4 ori mai multe șanse să facă tranziția (de aproximativ 5 ori după luarea în calcul a altor factori).
• Un copil cu un scor mediu avea o șansă prezisă de aproximativ 30% de a face tranziția, față de aproximativ 48% pentru un copil cu un scor ridicat.
• Copiii care au făcut ulterior tranziția au obținut scoruri aproximativ la fel ca cei care făcuseră deja tranziția și ca copiii de celălalt sex.
• Băieții aveau de aproximativ 4 ori mai multe șanse să facă tranziția decât fetele, iar un interval mai lung până la urmărire a prezis și el tranziția.
• Părinții erau foarte liberali din punct de vedere politic și cu venituri mari, iar autorii spun că rata de tranziție de 41% exagerează probabil rata pentru copiii neconformi cu genul în general.

Abstract

Increasing numbers of gender-nonconforming children are socially transitioning-changing pronouns to live as their identified genders. We studied a cohort of gender-nonconforming children (n = 85) and contacted them again approximately 2 years later. When recontacted, 36 of the children had socially transitioned. We found that stronger cross-sex identification and preferences expressed by gender-nonconforming children at initial testing predicted whether they later socially transitioned. We then compared the gender-nonconforming children with groups of transitioned transgender children (n = 84) and gender-conforming controls (n = 85). Children from our longitudinal cohort who would later transition were highly similar to transgender children (children who had already socially transitioned) and to control children of the gender to which they would eventually transition. Gender-nonconforming children who would not go on to transition were different from these groups. These results suggest that (a) social transitions may be predictable from gender identification and preferences and (b) gender identification and preferences may not meaningfully differ before and after social transitions.

Conclusion

Despite limitations and a need for future replications, this study provides preliminary evidence that extremity of identification with the gender opposite one's assigned sex predicts childhood social transitions. Moreover, differences in gender extremity likely exist prior to—and not because of—social transitions.