Summary

Researchers tested 85 gender-nonconforming young children, none yet socially transitioned, on tasks about gender identity and liking for toys, clothes and playmates. About two years later they checked whether the children had transitioned (changed pronouns). 36 had. Children who identified more strongly with the other sex at first testing were more likely to have transitioned, and their scores already looked like those of transitioned children and of children of the other sex. The authors conclude that childhood transitions are not random, and that transition itself does not seem to strengthen identification with the other sex. But the group was small, self-selected and from liberal, well-off families. Follow-up was short. The result was a parents' decision, not long-term identity. And the 'no change' claim compares different children, not the same child before and after.

Key findings

• 85 деца, несъответстващи на пола, които не са направили социална трансизиция, са тествани и проследени около 25 месеца по-късно средно.
• 36 деца (41%) са направили социална трансизиция чрез смяна на местоименията при проследяването; 49 не са.
• Децата, които в началото се идентифицират по-силно с другия пол, са около 4 пъти по-склонни да направят трансизиция (около 5 пъти след отчитане на други фактори).
• Дете със среден резултат има около 30% прогнозна вероятност да направи трансизиция, срещу около 48% за дете с висок резултат.
• Децата, които продължават към трансизиция, имат приблизително същите резултати като децата, които вече са направили трансизиция, и като децата от другия пол.
• Момчетата са около 4 пъти по-склонни да направят трансизиция от момичетата, а и по-дългият период до проследяването предсказва трансизиция.
• Родителите са много политически либерални и с висок доход, а авторите казват, че нивото на трансизиция от 41% вероятно надценява нивото за деца, несъответстващи на пола, като цяло.

Abstract

Increasing numbers of gender-nonconforming children are socially transitioning-changing pronouns to live as their identified genders. We studied a cohort of gender-nonconforming children (n = 85) and contacted them again approximately 2 years later. When recontacted, 36 of the children had socially transitioned. We found that stronger cross-sex identification and preferences expressed by gender-nonconforming children at initial testing predicted whether they later socially transitioned. We then compared the gender-nonconforming children with groups of transitioned transgender children (n = 84) and gender-conforming controls (n = 85). Children from our longitudinal cohort who would later transition were highly similar to transgender children (children who had already socially transitioned) and to control children of the gender to which they would eventually transition. Gender-nonconforming children who would not go on to transition were different from these groups. These results suggest that (a) social transitions may be predictable from gender identification and preferences and (b) gender identification and preferences may not meaningfully differ before and after social transitions.

Conclusion

Despite limitations and a need for future replications, this study provides preliminary evidence that extremity of identification with the gender opposite one's assigned sex predicts childhood social transitions. Moreover, differences in gender extremity likely exist prior to—and not because of—social transitions.