Summary

Opponents of state bans on medical transition for minors warned the bans would lead to more teen suicides. Researchers at Do No Harm, a group that campaigns against these treatments, tested this using US death records for 2018–2024. They compared suicide rates among all 15–19-year-olds in the 23 ban states with other states, and tracked national monthly rates for 13–17-year-olds. All three methods found changes close to zero, small enough to be chance. The report also criticises studies used to argue that the treatments prevent suicide. The finding is real but limited: it rules out a large rise across all teens in the first one to three years. Trans teens who lost treatment are a tiny share of all teens, so a meaningful rise among them could go unseen, as an economist who repeated the analysis pointed out. It was not checked by outside experts.

Key findings

• Rapporten brugte amerikanske nationale selvmordsregistre for 2018-2024. Forbud trådte i kraft i 2 delstater i 2022, 15 i 2023 og 6 i 2024, hvilket giver et til tre års data efter hvert forbud. Love blokeret af domstole blev først talt med, når de faktisk var i kraft.
• Hovedmetoden sammenlignede, hvordan selvmordsrater blandt 15-19-årige ændrede sig i delstater med forbud, med hvordan de ændrede sig i andre delstater, under hensyntagen til selvmordsrater blandt 20-24-årige, nationale tendenser, hver delstats sædvanlige rate og indkomst. Den fandt en ændring på -0,3 %, som sagtens kunne være tilfældig.
• En anden metode, designet til forbud, der begyndte i forskellige år, fandt en gennemsnitlig ændring på under 1 %, ikke anderledes end nul.
• En tredje metode fulgte nationale månedlige selvmordsrater for 13-17-årige op imod andelen af trans-identificerende teenagere, der lever under et forbud. Den estimerede effekt afrundede til nul.
• Rapporten måler dødsfald ved selvmord i hele aldersgruppen. Den måler ikke selvmordsforsøg eller selvmord blandt transkønnede unge eller dem, der søger behandling, den gruppe, som forbuddene direkte berører.
• Rapporten kritiserer også studier, der bruges til at understøtte påstanden om, at behandling forebygger selvmord. Disse omfatter Tordoff m.fl. 2022, hvor den ubehandlede gruppe skrumpede fra 93 til 7 personer, og et studie fra Trevor Project fra 2024 om anti-trans love.
• Forfatterne indrømmer, at resultaterne kan ændre sig med flere års data, og at andre metoder kunne give andre svar. De offentliggør deres analysekode.

Abstract

The following study examines the widespread belief that banning so-called gender-affirming care for minors increases suicide rates among gender-dysphoric youth. It finds no evidence that such prohibitions have any such effect. Across three analyses employing three distinct modeling approaches, we find no statistical support for the claim that state bans on gender interventions for minors have led to a spike in suicide rates.

Conclusion

This study finds no evidence that state prohibitions on surgeries, puberty blockers, or cross-sex hormones for minors with gender dysphoria have increased suicide rates. Across three analyses employing three distinct modeling approaches, the results clearly and consistently show no effects. There is no evidence to support the claim that state bans on gender interventions for minors led to a spike in suicide rates. The authors note that the debate is unlikely to be resolved by this analysis, that results could change with additional years of data, and that different modelling techniques could produce different findings, and they publish their STATA code for transparency.