Summary
Sociologist Michael Biggs estimated how many young patients of England's national youth gender clinic (GIDS) died by suicide between 2010 and 2020. Using hospital board papers and Freedom of Information requests, he found four known or suspected suicides, two of them among young people still on the waiting list, out of roughly 15,000 patients. That works out to about 13 suicides per 100,000 patients per year. This is around 5.5 times the rate for UK teenagers of similar age and sex mix, but still very rare (0.03% of patients). Biggs argues this shows higher risk, but also that claims that about half of trans youth attempt suicide give a misleading picture of how many die. Because it rests on four deaths, an estimated patient count and no data on other conditions, it is a rough figure. It says nothing about whether treatment raises or lowers risk.
Key findings
- Empat pasien GIDS diketahui atau diduga meninggal karena bunuh diri pada 2010–2020. Dua berada dalam daftar tunggu dan dua sudah ditangani; satu kematian masih menunggu pemeriksaan koroner.
- Dari sekitar 15.032 pasien, empat kematian sama dengan 0,03%. Ini jauh di bawah angka 'percobaan' seumur hidup sekitar 40–50% yang sering dikutip dari survei dan kelompok kampanye.
- Selama perkiraan 30.080 tahun pasien dalam perawatan klinik, angka bunuh diri tahunan adalah sekitar 13 per 100.000, meskipun angka sebenarnya bisa berkisar dari sekitar 4 hingga 34.
- Setelah memperhitungkan pasien klinik yang sebagian besar perempuan (69%), angkanya sekitar 5,5 kali angka seluruh remaja Inggris Raya usia 14–17 tahun (2,7 per 100.000).
- Angka GIDS sekitar 70 kali lebih rendah daripada yang dilaporkan untuk klinik gender remaja Belgia (5 dari 177 pasien), dan sekitar empat kali lebih rendah daripada klinik Amsterdam yang sebagian besar dewasa.
- Waktu dalam daftar tunggu menyusun 41% dari waktu yang dihitung, dan separuh bunuh diri terjadi di antara pasien daftar tunggu, kira-kira sejalan dengan proporsi itu.
- Penulis mencatat bahwa autisme (14–15% rujukan GIDS dibandingkan sekitar 1% murid Inggris), depresi, dan gangguan makan mungkin menjelaskan sebagian risiko yang lebih tinggi.
Conclusion
Data from the world's largest clinic for transgender youth over 11 years yield an estimated annual suicide rate of 13 per 100,000, 5.5 times greater than the overall suicide rate of adolescents of similar age after adjusting for sex composition. The estimate demonstrates elevated suicide risk among adolescents who identify as transgender, albeit without adjusting for accompanying psychological conditions such as autism. The proportion of patients who died by suicide (0.03%) is orders of magnitude smaller than the proportion of transgender adolescents who report attempting suicide in surveys. That deaths were so rare should provide some reassurance to transgender youth and their families, though it does not detract from the distress caused by non-fatal self-harm. The author argues it is irresponsible to exaggerate the prevalence of suicide, as this may itself increase the vulnerability of transgender adolescents.