Summary

Researchers tested 85 gender-nonconforming young children, none yet socially transitioned, on tasks about gender identity and liking for toys, clothes and playmates. About two years later they checked whether the children had transitioned (changed pronouns). 36 had. Children who identified more strongly with the other sex at first testing were more likely to have transitioned, and their scores already looked like those of transitioned children and of children of the other sex. The authors conclude that childhood transitions are not random, and that transition itself does not seem to strengthen identification with the other sex. But the group was small, self-selected and from liberal, well-off families. Follow-up was short. The result was a parents' decision, not long-term identity. And the 'no change' claim compares different children, not the same child before and after.

Key findings

• 사회적으로 전환하지 않은 성별 비순응 아동 85명을 검사하고 평균 약 25개월 후에 추적했습니다.
• 추적 시점에 36명(41%)이 대명사를 바꿔 사회적으로 전환했고 49명은 하지 않았습니다.
• 처음에 다른 성과 더 강하게 동일시한 아동은 전환할 가능성이 약 4배(다른 요인을 고려하면 약 5배) 높았습니다.
• 중간 점수를 가진 아동은 전환할 예상 확률이 약 30%였던 반면 높은 점수를 가진 아동은 약 48%였습니다.
• 나중에 전환한 아동은 이미 전환한 아동 및 다른 성 아동과 거의 같은 점수를 보였습니다.
• 남아는 여아보다 전환할 가능성이 약 4배 높았고, 추적까지의 간격이 길수록 전환을 예측했습니다.
• 부모는 정치적으로 매우 진보적이고 고소득이었으며, 저자들은 41%라는 전환 비율이 일반적인 성별 비순응 아동의 비율을 아마 과대평가한다고 말합니다.

Abstract

Increasing numbers of gender-nonconforming children are socially transitioning-changing pronouns to live as their identified genders. We studied a cohort of gender-nonconforming children (n = 85) and contacted them again approximately 2 years later. When recontacted, 36 of the children had socially transitioned. We found that stronger cross-sex identification and preferences expressed by gender-nonconforming children at initial testing predicted whether they later socially transitioned. We then compared the gender-nonconforming children with groups of transitioned transgender children (n = 84) and gender-conforming controls (n = 85). Children from our longitudinal cohort who would later transition were highly similar to transgender children (children who had already socially transitioned) and to control children of the gender to which they would eventually transition. Gender-nonconforming children who would not go on to transition were different from these groups. These results suggest that (a) social transitions may be predictable from gender identification and preferences and (b) gender identification and preferences may not meaningfully differ before and after social transitions.

Conclusion

Despite limitations and a need for future replications, this study provides preliminary evidence that extremity of identification with the gender opposite one's assigned sex predicts childhood social transitions. Moreover, differences in gender extremity likely exist prior to—and not because of—social transitions.