Summary

Researchers tested 85 gender-nonconforming young children, none yet socially transitioned, on tasks about gender identity and liking for toys, clothes and playmates. About two years later they checked whether the children had transitioned (changed pronouns). 36 had. Children who identified more strongly with the other sex at first testing were more likely to have transitioned, and their scores already looked like those of transitioned children and of children of the other sex. The authors conclude that childhood transitions are not random, and that transition itself does not seem to strengthen identification with the other sex. But the group was small, self-selected and from liberal, well-off families. Follow-up was short. The result was a parents' decision, not long-term identity. And the 'no change' claim compares different children, not the same child before and after.

Key findings

• 85 kinderen die niet aan genderverwachtingen voldeden en niet sociaal waren getransitioneerd, werden getest en gemiddeld ongeveer 25 maanden later opnieuw gevolgd.
• 36 kinderen (41%) waren bij de follow-up sociaal getransitioneerd door voornaamwoorden te wijzigen; 49 niet.
• Kinderen die zich aan het begin sterker met het andere geslacht identificeerden hadden ongeveer 4 keer zoveel kans om te transitioneren (ongeveer 5 keer na correctie voor andere factoren).
• Een kind met een gemiddelde score had een voorspelde kans van ongeveer 30% om te transitioneren, tegenover ongeveer 48% voor een kind met een hoge score.
• Kinderen die later transitioneerden scoorden ongeveer hetzelfde als kinderen die al getransitioneerd waren en als kinderen van het andere geslacht.
• Jongens hadden ongeveer 4 keer zoveel kans om te transitioneren als meisjes, en een langere tijd tot de follow-up voorspelde ook transitie.
• Ouders waren zeer politiek liberaal en hadden een hoog inkomen, en de auteurs zeggen dat het transitiepercentage van 41% waarschijnlijk te hoog is voor kinderen die niet aan genderverwachtingen voldoen in het algemeen.

Abstract

Increasing numbers of gender-nonconforming children are socially transitioning-changing pronouns to live as their identified genders. We studied a cohort of gender-nonconforming children (n = 85) and contacted them again approximately 2 years later. When recontacted, 36 of the children had socially transitioned. We found that stronger cross-sex identification and preferences expressed by gender-nonconforming children at initial testing predicted whether they later socially transitioned. We then compared the gender-nonconforming children with groups of transitioned transgender children (n = 84) and gender-conforming controls (n = 85). Children from our longitudinal cohort who would later transition were highly similar to transgender children (children who had already socially transitioned) and to control children of the gender to which they would eventually transition. Gender-nonconforming children who would not go on to transition were different from these groups. These results suggest that (a) social transitions may be predictable from gender identification and preferences and (b) gender identification and preferences may not meaningfully differ before and after social transitions.

Conclusion

Despite limitations and a need for future replications, this study provides preliminary evidence that extremity of identification with the gender opposite one's assigned sex predicts childhood social transitions. Moreover, differences in gender extremity likely exist prior to—and not because of—social transitions.