Summary

Opponents of state bans on medical transition for minors warned the bans would lead to more teen suicides. Researchers at Do No Harm, a group that campaigns against these treatments, tested this using US death records for 2018–2024. They compared suicide rates among all 15–19-year-olds in the 23 ban states with other states, and tracked national monthly rates for 13–17-year-olds. All three methods found changes close to zero, small enough to be chance. The report also criticises studies used to argue that the treatments prevent suicide. The finding is real but limited: it rules out a large rise across all teens in the first one to three years. Trans teens who lost treatment are a tiny share of all teens, so a meaningful rise among them could go unseen, as an economist who repeated the analysis pointed out. It was not checked by outside experts.

Key findings

• Poročilo je uporabilo ameriške nacionalne zapise o samomorih za 2018–2024. Prepovedi so začele veljati v 2 državah leta 2022, 15 leta 2023 in 6 leta 2024, kar daje od enega do tri leta podatkov po vsaki prepovedi. Zakoni, ki so jih blokirala sodišča, so bili šteti šele, ko so dejansko začeli veljati.
• Glavna metoda je primerjala, kako so se stopnje samomorov pri 15–19-letnikih spremenile v državah s prepovedjo, s tem, kako so se spremenile v drugih državah, ob upoštevanju stopenj samomorov pri 20–24-letnikih, nacionalnih trendov, običajne stopnje v vsaki državi in dohodka. Ugotovila je spremembo −0,3 %, ki bi lahko bila zlahka naključje.
• Druga metoda, zasnovana za prepovedi, ki so se začele v različnih letih, je ugotovila povprečno spremembo pod 1 %, ki se ne razlikuje od nič.
• Tretja metoda je spremljala nacionalne mesečne stopnje samomorov pri 13–17-letnikih glede na delež najstnikov, ki se identificirajo kot trans in živijo pod prepovedjo. Ocenjeni učinek se je zaokrožil na nič.
• Poročilo meri smrti zaradi samomora v celotni starostni skupini. Ne meri poskusov samomora ali samomorov med trans mladimi ali tistimi, ki iščejo zdravljenje, torej skupine, ki jo prepovedi neposredno prizadenejo.
• Poročilo kritizira tudi študije, uporabljene v podporo trditvi, da zdravljenje preprečuje samomor. Med njimi so Tordoff in sodelavci 2022, kjer se je nezdravljena skupina skrčila z 93 na 7 oseb, in študija Trevor Project iz leta 2024 o protitrans zakonih.
• Avtorji priznavajo, da bi se rezultati lahko spremenili z več leti podatkov in da bi druge metode lahko dale drugačne odgovore. Objavijo svojo analizno kodo.

Abstract

The following study examines the widespread belief that banning so-called gender-affirming care for minors increases suicide rates among gender-dysphoric youth. It finds no evidence that such prohibitions have any such effect. Across three analyses employing three distinct modeling approaches, we find no statistical support for the claim that state bans on gender interventions for minors have led to a spike in suicide rates.

Conclusion

This study finds no evidence that state prohibitions on surgeries, puberty blockers, or cross-sex hormones for minors with gender dysphoria have increased suicide rates. Across three analyses employing three distinct modeling approaches, the results clearly and consistently show no effects. There is no evidence to support the claim that state bans on gender interventions for minors led to a spike in suicide rates. The authors note that the debate is unlikely to be resolved by this analysis, that results could change with additional years of data, and that different modelling techniques could produce different findings, and they publish their STATA code for transparency.