Summary

Researchers tested 85 gender-nonconforming young children, none yet socially transitioned, on tasks about gender identity and liking for toys, clothes and playmates. About two years later they checked whether the children had transitioned (changed pronouns). 36 had. Children who identified more strongly with the other sex at first testing were more likely to have transitioned, and their scores already looked like those of transitioned children and of children of the other sex. The authors conclude that childhood transitions are not random, and that transition itself does not seem to strengthen identification with the other sex. But the group was small, self-selected and from liberal, well-off families. Follow-up was short. The result was a parents' decision, not long-term identity. And the 'no change' claim compares different children, not the same child before and after.

Key findings

• 85 könsöverskridande barn som inte hade transitionerat socialt testades och följdes upp i genomsnitt cirka 25 månader senare.
• 36 barn (41 %) hade transitionerat socialt genom att byta pronomen vid uppföljningen. 49 hade inte gjort det.
• Barn som identifierade sig starkare med det andra könet i början var cirka 4 gånger mer benägna att transitionera (cirka 5 gånger efter hänsyn till andra faktorer).
• Ett barn med en medelhög poäng hade cirka 30 % förutspådd chans att transitionera, mot cirka 48 % för ett barn med en hög poäng.
• Barn som gick vidare till att transitionera fick ungefär samma poäng som barn som redan hade transitionerat och som barn av det andra könet.
• Pojkar var cirka 4 gånger mer benägna att transitionera än flickor, och ett längre uppehåll före uppföljningen förutsade också transition.
• Föräldrarna var mycket politiskt liberala och höginkomsttagare, och författarna säger att andelen på 41 % som transitionerade sannolikt överskattar andelen för könsöverskridande barn i allmänhet.

Abstract

Increasing numbers of gender-nonconforming children are socially transitioning-changing pronouns to live as their identified genders. We studied a cohort of gender-nonconforming children (n = 85) and contacted them again approximately 2 years later. When recontacted, 36 of the children had socially transitioned. We found that stronger cross-sex identification and preferences expressed by gender-nonconforming children at initial testing predicted whether they later socially transitioned. We then compared the gender-nonconforming children with groups of transitioned transgender children (n = 84) and gender-conforming controls (n = 85). Children from our longitudinal cohort who would later transition were highly similar to transgender children (children who had already socially transitioned) and to control children of the gender to which they would eventually transition. Gender-nonconforming children who would not go on to transition were different from these groups. These results suggest that (a) social transitions may be predictable from gender identification and preferences and (b) gender identification and preferences may not meaningfully differ before and after social transitions.

Conclusion

Despite limitations and a need for future replications, this study provides preliminary evidence that extremity of identification with the gender opposite one's assigned sex predicts childhood social transitions. Moreover, differences in gender extremity likely exist prior to—and not because of—social transitions.