Summary

Opponents of state bans on medical transition for minors warned the bans would lead to more teen suicides. Researchers at Do No Harm, a group that campaigns against these treatments, tested this using US death records for 2018–2024. They compared suicide rates among all 15–19-year-olds in the 23 ban states with other states, and tracked national monthly rates for 13–17-year-olds. All three methods found changes close to zero, small enough to be chance. The report also criticises studies used to argue that the treatments prevent suicide. The finding is real but limited: it rules out a large rise across all teens in the first one to three years. Trans teens who lost treatment are a tiny share of all teens, so a meaningful rise among them could go unseen, as an economist who repeated the analysis pointed out. It was not checked by outside experts.

Key findings

• 报告使用了美国2018至2024年的全国自杀记录。禁令于2022年在2个州生效，2023年在15个州生效，2024年在6个州生效，每项禁令之后有一到三年的数据。被法院阻止的法律只有在实际生效后才被计入。
• 主要方法比较了禁令州15至19岁人群自杀率的变化与其他州的变化，并考虑了20至24岁人群的自杀率、全国趋势、各州通常的比率和收入。它发现变化为−0.3%，很可能是偶然。
• 第二种方法针对在不同年份开始的禁令设计，发现平均变化不到1%，与零没有差别。
• 第三种方法将13至17岁人群的全国月度自杀率与生活在禁令之下的认同跨性别青少年的比例作了对照。估计的效应四舍五入为零。
• 报告衡量的是整个年龄组的自杀死亡。它没有衡量自杀未遂，也没有衡量跨性别青少年或寻求治疗者（禁令直接影响的群体）的自杀。
• 报告还批评了用来支持治疗可预防自杀这一说法的研究。其中包括Tordoff等人2022年的研究（未治疗组从93人缩减到7人）和Trevor Project 2024年关于反跨性别法律的研究。
• 作者承认，随着更多年份的数据，结果可能会改变，其他方法可能给出不同的答案。他们公开了分析代码。

Abstract

The following study examines the widespread belief that banning so-called gender-affirming care for minors increases suicide rates among gender-dysphoric youth. It finds no evidence that such prohibitions have any such effect. Across three analyses employing three distinct modeling approaches, we find no statistical support for the claim that state bans on gender interventions for minors have led to a spike in suicide rates.

Conclusion

This study finds no evidence that state prohibitions on surgeries, puberty blockers, or cross-sex hormones for minors with gender dysphoria have increased suicide rates. Across three analyses employing three distinct modeling approaches, the results clearly and consistently show no effects. There is no evidence to support the claim that state bans on gender interventions for minors led to a spike in suicide rates. The authors note that the debate is unlikely to be resolved by this analysis, that results could change with additional years of data, and that different modelling techniques could produce different findings, and they publish their STATA code for transparency.