Summary
Sociologist Michael Biggs estimated how many young patients of England's national youth gender clinic (GIDS) died by suicide between 2010 and 2020. Using hospital board papers and Freedom of Information requests, he found four known or suspected suicides, two of them among young people still on the waiting list, out of roughly 15,000 patients. That works out to about 13 suicides per 100,000 patients per year. This is around 5.5 times the rate for UK teenagers of similar age and sex mix, but still very rare (0.03% of patients). Biggs argues this shows higher risk, but also that claims that about half of trans youth attempt suicide give a misleading picture of how many die. Because it rests on four deaths, an estimated patient count and no data on other conditions, it is a rough figure. It says nothing about whether treatment raises or lowers risk.
Key findings
- 2010至2020年间，已知或疑似有四名GIDS患者死于自杀。两人在等候名单上，两人已就诊；一例死亡仍在等待死因裁定。
- 在约15,032名患者中，四例死亡相当于0.03%。这远低于调查和倡导团体经常引用的约40%至50%的终生“尝试”数字。
- 在诊所照护下估计总计30,080患者年中，年自杀率约为每10万人13例，不过真实数字可能在约4至34之间。
- 在考虑了诊所以女性为主的患者（69%）后，该比率约为英国14至17岁所有青少年（每10万人2.7例）的5.5倍。
- GIDS的比率约比比利时青少年性别诊所报告的低70倍（177名患者中有5例），比以成年人为主的阿姆斯特丹诊所低约四倍。
- 等候名单上的时间占所统计时间的41%，一半的自杀发生在等候名单上的患者中，与这一比例大致相当。
- 作者指出，自闭症（占GIDS转介的14%至15%，而英格兰学生中约为1%）、抑郁和饮食障碍可能解释了较高风险的一部分。
Conclusion
Data from the world's largest clinic for transgender youth over 11 years yield an estimated annual suicide rate of 13 per 100,000, 5.5 times greater than the overall suicide rate of adolescents of similar age after adjusting for sex composition. The estimate demonstrates elevated suicide risk among adolescents who identify as transgender, albeit without adjusting for accompanying psychological conditions such as autism. The proportion of patients who died by suicide (0.03%) is orders of magnitude smaller than the proportion of transgender adolescents who report attempting suicide in surveys. That deaths were so rare should provide some reassurance to transgender youth and their families, though it does not detract from the distress caused by non-fatal self-harm. The author argues it is irresponsible to exaggerate the prevalence of suicide, as this may itself increase the vulnerability of transgender adolescents.