Summary

Researchers tested 85 gender-nonconforming young children, none yet socially transitioned, on tasks about gender identity and liking for toys, clothes and playmates. About two years later they checked whether the children had transitioned (changed pronouns). 36 had. Children who identified more strongly with the other sex at first testing were more likely to have transitioned, and their scores already looked like those of transitioned children and of children of the other sex. The authors conclude that childhood transitions are not random, and that transition itself does not seem to strengthen identification with the other sex. But the group was small, self-selected and from liberal, well-off families. Follow-up was short. The result was a parents' decision, not long-term identity. And the 'no change' claim compares different children, not the same child before and after.

Key findings

• 85 名尚未進行社會性過渡、不符合性別規範的兒童接受了測試，平均約 25 個月後再追蹤。
• 追蹤時，36 名兒童（41%）已透過改變代名詞進行了社會性過渡；49 人沒有。
• 一開始更強烈認同另一性別的兒童，進行過渡的可能性約為 4 倍（考慮其他因素後約為 5 倍）。
• 分數中等的兒童預測進行過渡的機率約為 30%，而分數高的兒童約為 48%。
• 後來進行過渡的兒童，分數與已經過渡的兒童和另一性別的兒童大致相同。
• 男孩進行過渡的可能性約為女孩的 4 倍，而追蹤前的間隔較長也能預測過渡。
• 家長在政治上非常開明且高收入，作者表示 41% 的過渡率可能高估了一般不符合性別規範兒童的比率。

Abstract

Increasing numbers of gender-nonconforming children are socially transitioning-changing pronouns to live as their identified genders. We studied a cohort of gender-nonconforming children (n = 85) and contacted them again approximately 2 years later. When recontacted, 36 of the children had socially transitioned. We found that stronger cross-sex identification and preferences expressed by gender-nonconforming children at initial testing predicted whether they later socially transitioned. We then compared the gender-nonconforming children with groups of transitioned transgender children (n = 84) and gender-conforming controls (n = 85). Children from our longitudinal cohort who would later transition were highly similar to transgender children (children who had already socially transitioned) and to control children of the gender to which they would eventually transition. Gender-nonconforming children who would not go on to transition were different from these groups. These results suggest that (a) social transitions may be predictable from gender identification and preferences and (b) gender identification and preferences may not meaningfully differ before and after social transitions.

Conclusion

Despite limitations and a need for future replications, this study provides preliminary evidence that extremity of identification with the gender opposite one's assigned sex predicts childhood social transitions. Moreover, differences in gender extremity likely exist prior to—and not because of—social transitions.