Summary
In this 2016 blog post, Cantor asked whether children with gender distress stay trans as they grow up. He listed every follow-up study he knew of, 11 in all, from Lebovitz (1972) to Steensma and colleagues (2013). For each, he gave how many children still had gender distress and how many did not. He wrote that despite different countries, decades and methods, the studies agree: only a small minority still want to transition by adulthood, roughly 60% to 90% do not, and most of them turn out gay or lesbian. The post is a handy plain-language list of the older research, and its sources can be checked. But it is not a formal review. It has no search method, no quality rating and no combined figure. The studies used older diagnoses and were mostly of boys. The post also does not discuss published criticism of how 'growing out of it' was defined and counted.
Key findings
- Cantorは、1972年から2013年に発表された、性別に非同調的な行動や性別への苦痛で診察を受けた子どもの11件の追跡研究を挙げ、そのうち3件は大規模だと述べています。
- この記事は、そのようなクリニックで診察を受けた子どもの約60%～90%が、10代または成人になるまでにトランスとは自認しなくなったと結論づけています。
- 挙げられた最大規模の研究では、性別への苦痛が続いたのは、139人中17人（Singh、トロントの男児）、127人中47人（Steensmaら、アムステルダム）、54人中21人（WallienとCohen-Kettenis）で、約12%～39%でした。
- Cantorは、性別への苦痛がなくなった子どもの大半は、異性愛者ではなく、ゲイまたはレズビアンに成長したと書いています。
- この記事は、トロントのCAMHの児童ジェンダークリニックの閉鎖を受けて、2016年1月に書かれました。
- 古い研究のいくつかは非常に小規模（子ども5～16人）で、大半は男児のみを調べています。Drummondらは25人の女児を追跡し、2つのオランダの研究は男女の両方を含んでいました。
- Singh（2012）の研究は当時未公表の博士論文で、後の2021年にSingh、Bradley、ZuckerによってFrontiers in Psychiatryに掲載されました。
Abstract
Following the closure of the CAMH Gender Identity Clinic for children, this blog post reviews what the science says about whether children who identify as transgender remain transgender into adulthood. The post summarizes three large-scale follow-up studies and several smaller ones, all examining the outcomes of children referred to gender identity clinics. The studies span different countries, cultures, decades, and follow-up lengths and methods.
Conclusion
Despite the differences in country, culture, decade, and follow-up length and method, all the studies have come to a remarkably similar conclusion: Only very few trans- kids still want to transition by the time they are adults. Instead, they generally turn out to be regular gay or lesbian folks. The exact number varies by study, but roughly 60 – 90% of trans- kids turn out no longer to be trans by adulthood.