ブロッカーを使ったオランダの若者の98%がホルモンの処方を継続――ただし追跡は20歳前後で終了

青年期に思春期抑制を開始したトランスジェンダーの人々における性別肯定ホルモンの継続：オランダのコホート研究

Authors: Maria Anna Theodora Catharina van der Loos, Sabine Elisabeth Hannema, Daniel Tatting Klink, Martin den Heijer, Chantal Maria Wiepjes
Journal: The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health
Year: 2022
Source: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-4642(22)00254-1

Summary

Researchers at the Amsterdam clinic that pioneered the Dutch approach of blocking puberty linked the records of 720 young people who started puberty blockers and then cross-sex hormones as teenagers to the national prescription register. At the end of 2018, 98% still had a hormone prescription, and no medical factor predicted stopping. The authors called this reassuring. The figure is widely cited as proof that regret is rare, but it counts prescriptions, not satisfaction or wellbeing. Half the group was about 19 or younger at follow-up, detransition often happens years later, the reasons the 16 people stopped are unknown, and people whose ovaries or testes have been removed need hormones regardless. It shows most people stayed on treatment into early adulthood, not that regret is low.

Key findings

この研究には、18歳より前に思春期ブロッカーを開始し、アムステルダムのクリニックで異性ホルモンを追加した720人（69%が女性として生まれた）が含まれました。
2018年末の時点で、704人（98%）が国の登録に異性ホルモンの処方があり、16人にはありませんでした。
ブロッカーを開始した典型的な年齢は、男性として生まれた人で14歳、女性として生まれた人で16歳でした。追跡時の典型的な年齢は、約20歳と19歳にすぎませんでした。
年齢、初診の年、思春期の段階、ホルモンの開始年齢、卵巣や精巣の摘出は、誰がホルモンをやめたかを予測しませんでした。
この研究が数えたのは保険で支払われた処方であり、薬が実際に服用されたかどうか、幸福度、満足度、後悔は数えておらず、やめた16人の理由は不明です。
研究の全員がすでに異性ホルモンを開始していたため、ブロッカーだけでやめた10代は数えられていません。
米軍の健康記録の研究（Robertsら、2022年）では、4年以内に約30%がホルモンをやめており、場所によって結果が大きく異なることを示しています。

Abstract

BACKGROUND: In the Netherlands, treatment with puberty suppression is available to transgender adolescents younger than age 18 years. When gender dysphoria persists testosterone or oestradiol can be added as gender-affirming hormones in young people who go on to transition. We investigated the proportion of people who continued gender-affirming hormone treatment at follow-up after having started puberty suppression and gender-affirming hormone treatment in adolescence. METHODS: In this cohort study, we used data from the Amsterdam Cohort of Gender dysphoria (ACOG), which included people who visited the gender identity clinic of the Amsterdam UMC, location Vrije Universiteit Medisch Centrum, Netherlands, for gender dysphoria. People with disorders of sex development were not included in the ACOG. We included people who started medical treatment in adolescence with a gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist (GnRHa) to suppress puberty before the age of 18 years and used GnRHa for a minimum duration of 3 months before addition of gender-affirming hormones. We linked this data to a nationwide prescription registry supplied by Statistics Netherlands (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek) to check for a prescription for gender-affirming hormones at follow-up. The main outcome of this study was a prescription for gender-affirming hormones at the end of data collection (Dec 31, 2018). Data were analysed using Cox regression to identify possible determinants associated with a higher risk of stopping gender-affirming hormone treatment. FINDINGS: 720 people were included, of whom 220 (31%) were assigned male at birth and 500 (69%) were assigned female at birth. At the start of GnRHa treatment, the median age was 14·1 (IQR 13·0-16·3) years for people assigned male at birth and 16·0 (14·1-16·9) years for people assigned female at birth. Median age at end of data collection was 20·2 (17·9-24·8) years for people assigned male at birth and 19·2 (17·8-22·0) years for those assigned female at birth. 704 (98%) people who had started gender-affirming medical treatment in adolescence continued to use gender-affirming hormones at follow-up. Age at first visit, year of first visit, age and puberty stage at start of GnRHa treatment, age at start of gender-affirming hormone treatment, year of start of gender-affirming hormone treatment, and gonadectomy were not associated with discontinuing gender-affirming hormones. INTERPRETATION: Most participants who started gender-affirming hormones in adolescence continued this treatment into adulthood. The continuation of treatment is reassuring considering the worries that people who started treatment in adolescence might discontinue gender-affirming treatment. FUNDING: None.

Conclusion

Most participants who started gender-affirming hormones in adolescence continued this treatment into adulthood. The authors consider the continuation of treatment reassuring given concerns that people who start treatment in adolescence might later discontinue it.

Methodological limitations

A prescription is only a stand-in: The study counted a hormone prescription paid for on one date. That doesn't confirm the drugs were taken and says nothing about wellbeing, satisfaction or regret. The authors told NPR they could not tell whether the 2% actually stopped.
Short follow-up: The typical person was about 19 or 20 when data collection ended, and recent patients were followed only briefly. Detransition is often reported several years after starting treatment, so later stopping is missed.
Some must keep taking hormones: People whose ovaries or testes have been removed need hormones for life for their bones and general health. So a continuing prescription in this group doesn't show they still support their transition.
Staying on treatment is not the same as benefit: The study measured whether treatment continued, not whether mental health or quality of life improved. Yet the authors call continuing 'reassuring' about worries over regret.
Reasons for stopping unknown: No information was collected on why the 16 people had no prescription, whether regret, health problems, moving abroad or trouble getting care.
Some hormone sources missed: People getting hormones abroad, privately or without insurance would look like they stopped. People who stopped but still filled prescriptions would look like they continued. So errors can go both ways.
Earlier dropouts left out: Only people who added hormones after at least three months of blockers were included. Those who stopped after blockers alone, the group most relevant to the claim that blockers are just a 'pause', are not counted.
Selected, older group: Patients came from one specialist clinic with strict Dutch entry rules, mostly before the recent rise in teenage girls and young people with complex mental-health needs seeking care. So the results may not apply today.
Different results elsewhere: A US military health-system study (Roberts et al., 2022) found about 30% of patients stopped hormones within four years, suggesting how many continue depends heavily on the setting.
Authors provide the treatment: The authors work at the clinic that developed and provides the treatment, and the study had no outside funding or independent checking of results.

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