Summary

In this 2016 blog post, Cantor asked whether children with gender distress stay trans as they grow up. He listed every follow-up study he knew of, 11 in all, from Lebovitz (1972) to Steensma and colleagues (2013). For each, he gave how many children still had gender distress and how many did not. He wrote that despite different countries, decades and methods, the studies agree: only a small minority still want to transition by adulthood, roughly 60% to 90% do not, and most of them turn out gay or lesbian. The post is a handy plain-language list of the older research, and its sources can be checked. But it is not a formal review. It has no search method, no quality rating and no combined figure. The studies used older diagnoses and were mostly of boys. The post also does not discuss published criticism of how 'growing out of it' was defined and counted.

Key findings

• Cantor列出了11项对因不符合性别规范的行为或性别痛苦而就诊的儿童所做的随访研究，发表于1972年至2013年，并说其中三项规模较大。
• 文章的结论是，在此类诊所就诊的儿童中，大约60%至90%在青少年或成年时不再认同为跨性别者。
• 在所列的最大规模的研究中，性别痛苦持续的有139人中的17人（Singh，多伦多男孩）、127人中的47人（Steensma及同事，阿姆斯特丹）和54人中的21人（Wallien和Cohen-Kettenis），即约12%至39%。
• Cantor写道，大多数度过了性别痛苦的儿童长大后是男同性恋或女同性恋，而不是异性恋。
• 这篇文章写于2016年1月，是对多伦多CAMH儿童性别诊所关闭的回应。
• 一些较早的研究规模非常小（5至16名儿童），大多数只研究了男孩；Drummond及同事追踪了25名女孩，两项荷兰研究则包括两种性别。
• Singh（2012年）的研究当时还是一篇未发表的博士论文；后来由Singh、Bradley和Zucker于2021年发表在《Frontiers in Psychiatry》上。

Abstract

Following the closure of the CAMH Gender Identity Clinic for children, this blog post reviews what the science says about whether children who identify as transgender remain transgender into adulthood. The post summarizes three large-scale follow-up studies and several smaller ones, all examining the outcomes of children referred to gender identity clinics. The studies span different countries, cultures, decades, and follow-up lengths and methods.

Conclusion

Despite the differences in country, culture, decade, and follow-up length and method, all the studies have come to a remarkably similar conclusion: Only very few trans- kids still want to transition by the time they are adults. Instead, they generally turn out to be regular gay or lesbian folks. The exact number varies by study, but roughly 60 – 90% of trans- kids turn out no longer to be trans by adulthood.