Summary

Opponents of state bans on medical transition for minors warned the bans would lead to more teen suicides. Researchers at Do No Harm, a group that campaigns against these treatments, tested this using US death records for 2018–2024. They compared suicide rates among all 15–19-year-olds in the 23 ban states with other states, and tracked national monthly rates for 13–17-year-olds. All three methods found changes close to zero, small enough to be chance. The report also criticises studies used to argue that the treatments prevent suicide. The finding is real but limited: it rules out a large rise across all teens in the first one to three years. Trans teens who lost treatment are a tiny share of all teens, so a meaningful rise among them could go unseen, as an economist who repeated the analysis pointed out. It was not checked by outside experts.

Key findings

• 報告使用 2018–2024 年美國全國自殺紀錄。禁令在 2022 年於 2 個州生效，2023 年於 15 個州生效，2024 年於 6 個州生效，因此每項禁令之後有一到三年的資料。被法院擋下的法律，只有在實際生效後才被計入。
• 主要方法比較了禁令州與其他州之間 15–19 歲者自殺率的變化，並考慮了 20–24 歲者的自殺率、全國趨勢、各州的一般自殺率和收入。它發現變化為 −0.3%，很容易只是偶然。
• 第二種方法專為在不同年份開始的禁令設計，發現平均變化不到 1%，與零沒有差異。
• 第三種方法追蹤 13–17 歲者的全國每月自殺率，對照生活在禁令下的自認為跨性別青少年所占的比例。估計的效果四捨五入後為零。
• 報告衡量的是整個年齡層的自殺死亡。它沒有衡量自殺未遂，也沒有衡量跨性別青少年或尋求治療者的自殺，而後者才是禁令直接影響的群體。
• 報告也批評了被用來支持治療能預防自殺這項主張的研究。這些包括 Tordoff 等人 2022 年的研究（其中未接受治療的組別從 93 人縮減到 7 人），以及 2024 年 Trevor Project 對反跨性別法律的研究。
• 作者承認，結果可能隨著更多年份的資料而改變，其他方法也可能給出不同的答案。他們公開了分析程式碼。

Abstract

The following study examines the widespread belief that banning so-called gender-affirming care for minors increases suicide rates among gender-dysphoric youth. It finds no evidence that such prohibitions have any such effect. Across three analyses employing three distinct modeling approaches, we find no statistical support for the claim that state bans on gender interventions for minors have led to a spike in suicide rates.

Conclusion

This study finds no evidence that state prohibitions on surgeries, puberty blockers, or cross-sex hormones for minors with gender dysphoria have increased suicide rates. Across three analyses employing three distinct modeling approaches, the results clearly and consistently show no effects. There is no evidence to support the claim that state bans on gender interventions for minors led to a spike in suicide rates. The authors note that the debate is unlikely to be resolved by this analysis, that results could change with additional years of data, and that different modelling techniques could produce different findings, and they publish their STATA code for transparency.